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Task with a Twist

As expected Becki got booted by the public, with the group now reduced to the magic total of 8. With Jason and Michelle passing the military task, the rest of the housemates are up for the boot. The question is whether Ahmed will be able to survive his third eviction, or if jungle cat Victor will be booted by the public.

The past week in the house

Things are proceeding along rather well, the Military task has been quite interesting, although the fact that it means yet another week where the housemates are not nominating is somewhat dissapointing.

Ahmed has become a central character, although sadly it looks as though he is annoying more viewers rather than building up a popular following. His distruction of the plastercast Maureen was excellant viewing, but his now regular outburst about 'not doing this' or 'that' are really ruining his chances of reaching the very tail end of the series.

We have also seen BB give into Nadia's drug addiction - that of her beloved ciggarettes. Is this what BB meant when it proclaimed it woud be 'evil' ? Personally my drug of choice is chocolate, had I entered the house and failed the weekly task, would BB have given me a crate full of chocolate if I whined enough? It just seems very lame of BB to give into Nadia's cravings. I would rather have seen Nadia be allowed to leave the house (meaning no need for a double eviction in wk'8), than see Nadia get yet another drug fix. I thought the whole point of this years show was to be tough on the housemates? Clearly, since the events of 'fight night' the C4 production team has the mental strength of a lame donkey.

Military Task

This latest task has been quite interesting. Ahmed has been shown to be quite the rebellious type, challenging most of the housemates, and claiming to be 'sick' - although appearing to be just somewhat 'tired'. Jason and Michelle were indeed more than happy to take on the role of Sergeant and happily bossed around the lowly privates. Interesting though was that Jason took very much the sideline role compared to Michelle.

Michelle was indeed very upset with the situation BB had placed her in, one of effectively lying by omission to her fellow housemates. Ahmed's attitude to immediately verbally attack her (regarding her shouting at him during the weekend) was brilliant to see - although Ahmed may well have sealed his fate in terms of the eviction this Friday.

Michelle: Upset after the true nature of the task was revealed

Big Brother - overly interfering

This week once again BB has prevented nominations from being done without any interference. With Jason and Michelle exempt from the boot, the rest of the group was put up for the public boot. Why are the producers so interferring this year when it comes to nominations ?

Lets be clear....it is week 7, and so far there has not been a single round of nominations where BB has not tinkered with the balance in some way. Whether it was Becky being giving a 'golden vote', or housemates Jason/Victor being prevented from voting, this series has been VERY disturbed in terms of nominations. There is yet to be one nomination round whereby all housemates are able to vote on an equal basis, it really is quite a bizarre series in this respect.

With a double eviction likely next week, the question is will BB keep things simple, or will it choose to interfere in some way - perhaps with some 'head of the household' for a week ? If the past 7 weeks are anything to go by, then some level of interference with the last 2 rounds of nominations is likely.

The Baying Mob

A big 'pantomime' some have called it, yet last week's mighty booing for Becki was perhaps the most hideous reception any housemate has yet received. What did she deserve to receive such a nasty reception after her short 11 day stay ? Was it licking Jam off Michelle's nipples, was it pretending she was from Italian Big Brother, or is it the fact that the people that turn up to BB evictions are little more than common scum. Are these the same types that attack innocent bystanders in the street on a Friday/Saturday night after pub closing hours?

Jason - what will his reception be like?

We have the matter of Jason to consider. Reflect back to the days of Jade Goody - weeks 5-7, a time when many people wanted her strung up for the way she treated dear Sophie. Yet because she reached the final night, Jade got a reasonably happy and positive reception. It is always the case that anyone who reaches the final night is given a reasonably good reception - doubtless the crowd are 'made' to be nice that evening. Had Jade been booted one week earlier, it would have been utter mayhem, the crowd would have been screaming for her head on a wooden pole.

So the question is will Jason be as lucky as Jade was and manage to survive until the final week. Sadly, I actually think there is a distinct possibility- although somewhat slim. Dan certainly wouldn't support Jason in week 9 nominations, and in all balance Jason would be most likely to be the 5'th from last to go.

If anything nasty ever happens to a housemate within 2-3 months of an eviction it will be entirely due to C4's eviction night style. The weekly fierce boos and vengeful mob mentality just increases with each show. Were there to be a BB7 or 8 (scary thought) can you imagine how nasty things might be then?

With Becki's family officially regarding as now 'dead', should Becki be concerned about her safey ? I think she should at least be careful for the next few months. Two words..... 'Honour Killing'. I've read enough about that issue to realise there are a fair few sick religious nuts out there who would be more than happy to act as Mercenary to assassinate Becki.

Becki's recent appearance on BBLB was highly inspiring though. Dressed in all white -acting as a psychologist, she looked very composed and so much more professional that during any part of her time in the house. I do wish Becki well for her future, hopefully she will continue to follow her life path and do what she wants to do, in her own unique special style. Take care Becki.

Becki - concerned about the reception outside

Housemate Assessments

Ψ Ahmed: The most unlikely of housemates to have reached such a late stage in the series, having survived 2 public votes so far. His moods continue to swing from 'i'm leaving' to 'i wanna stay', which in itself has been quite entertaining.

Does the public really believe in Ahmania though? Sadly, despite my high hopes that Ahmed will manage one further week, the odds are against him.
Ahmed, if you go this week you'll be missed by many !

Ψ Dan : He is increasingly becoming the moody housemate, the parental figure - although is remaining to keep his calm persona in the house. One question indeed is whether Dan will manage to keep this fancy act up until the final night, or will someone send him over the edge into a reasonably feisty row. With Jason in the house, there is always that possibility, although Dan appears to be the controlling type (internally, not with others), and in all probability Dan will manage to battle through until the last night.

Dan has indeed played a good game. He has only been up for eviction once, and will easily survive this weeks eviction. In terms of winning, I still can't see Dan being voted above Stuart - surely the teenie texters would support the 'one with the eyes' ? In any case, Dan will make it to the final night, and for that he can be proud.

Dan: The Moody Housemate?

Ψ Jason : As leader of the Jungle Cats Jason remains the best game player in BB history. Despite being utterly overt about nominations (as BB would say on some 31 occasions), Jason has done well.

Personally, I respect him as a game player, but I still resent him over his attitude to dear Emma and Marco- two housemates who only ever wanted to have some crazy fun in the house. For this reason Jason must be evicted before the final night - he deserves a Baying mob on either week 8' or 9'.

Ψ Michelle : She sure was desperate to not be up for the public vote this week. Michelle could have chosen the unique strategy to tell the group what BB has proposed, and see them fail the task on purpose. Did Michelle really believe that if she was in a straight eviction face off against Jason that he would stay ? Hmm, I guess we should again consider the fact that she is not entirely the most intelligent housemate in the house - especially in terms of understanding how the public might be perceiving them. She should ask Dan once in a while for some advice- he is very much in touch with reality, and has a great understanding of what BB is often up to.

Ψ Nadia : Dear Nadia, despite having slapped Jason hard (good on her)* she has managed to reach the latter part of the show, outlasting her friends Emma and Marco.

Is Nadia in with an outside chance for a BB win ? I just can't see the UK public voting for her, not against housemates like Stuart or Michelle - people whom are much more 'safe' targets to vote for. Nadia will reach the end of week 8', but then may well get the boot in a double eviction.

*Whilst watching the web streams recently, Ahmed was noting to Jason about when Nadia had 'slapped him' - only for the streaming to be immediately cut !

Ψ Shell : The money grabber Shell, is looking very secure in the group. She has remained highly composed and polite to almost all of the housemates during her stay. Always trying to placate the others, she agrees with much of what anyone else says, just to keep in their 'good books'. She wants to win very much, and will say anything to please any of the housemates. Even after having an argument with Ahmed, she will then later approach him, and tell him she entirely understands his viewpoint - in the obvious attempt to try to no have Ahmed voting for her in the next round of nominations.

One interesting incident lately occured during the Military task. Ahmed was decidedly not contributing much to the group, and Shell noted that it would be most unfair if the group failed because of Ahmed, and if someone was evicted rather than him. Shell is so desperate to win - and hides it well most of the time. Her one major lapse was during Kitten's eviction night - the moment where Kitten refused to leave and the prize fund was starting to dwindle, Shell effectively pleaded for Kitten to leave because of her 'debts'. Hmm, poor Shell.

Shell won't win BB5, and for that we should be grateful.

Money Grabbing Shell - worried that she might not win

Ψ Stuart : Stu-pid, bless him is doing perfectly. A flawless nomination record - yet to receive a single vote. So, at the very least he'll reach week 8' without a single vote against him - a quiet astounding achievement. Further, it would appear likely that he won't be nominated at all during his house stay.

Stuart has maintained a very positive attitude to every experience in the house. When BB throws a surprise on them - one that many would find annoying and upsetting, Stuart's response is 'that's wicked.. really great'. I actually happen to think the guy is really very genuine, and in this respect he will be a deserved winner - if he is so fortunate.

Ψ Victor : Slick, aka the 'milkman' has had a great run in the house. As a Jungle Cat he has seen a number of his targets get the boot - most notably Marco.

In reviewing some BB footage this week- including some from fight night, Victor is actually one of the peace-makers of the house. In this respect I think many people have over-looked this trait of his - of which I include myself in this past mis-perception.
Perhaps I am clouded in my general bias towards Ahmed, but I believe that Victor will not survive his first public vote this Friday. Many associate him still with the events that happened on fight night. In particular, his alliance with Jason taints Victor's public image- this is the 'Shadow Effect'.

If Vic' does get the boot this Friday, whether you liked him or not - Slick provided some great entertainment during his 7 week stay, and for that we must thank him.

Victor: Painting Coal, will this be his last house task?

Nominations - or not, as the case is again !

For the second time this series, there are no nominations at all. With the privates passing the task, Jason and Michelle are exempt, with the rest being put straight up for the public vote.

Who will get booted week 7 ?

Nomination Calculations week 7

Up for the boot we have...
Ahmed, Dan, Nadia, Shell, Stuart, and Victor

First, taking: Shell, Stuart, and Dan -these are 'non' housemates in this eviction, they are of little concern to us.

Of these 3 HM's, I would suggest Stuart will get fewest votes... so.... which of Shell and Dan will get more votes?
Shell remains a VERY tame housemate, and I believe she will remain more neutral in the minds of most people than Dan - who some have suggested is starting to annoy others.

So then, we Stuart in last place, then Shell, then Dan.

In % terms of overall vote, I believe Stuart would get no more than 4-7%, Shell 6-9%, Dan, 10-12%

At most then, the lowest 3 will get 25% of the total votes.
----
Now, lets deal with the other three HM's, assuming there are 75% of the votes left.

Ahmed
Nadia.... and the Cat Victor.

Nadia having survived against Marco, did really well.... so, lets assume she will be in 3'rd place with around 10-15% of the vote.

*at most now, the remaining 2 hm's have perhaps 60% of the votes left between them.

Now, Ahmed is certainly annoying a lot of people, yet can he undercut the Jungle Cat victor - whom many have despised since Fight night ?
I'm certain that Victor in the 6 way split vote will surely get 30% of the vote, with Ahmed on maybe 20% minimum.

Yet, in what is effectively a face off between 'fight night' villain and 'ahmed smash things up'...... i'm proposing that the Cat will be strung up.
Even though Ahmed will have annoyed many viewers this past week, - Ahmania to a small extent does exist, Victor has no such following of significance.

In all serious consideration, i believe the people who supported Emma/Marco on fight night will go out full force to boot Victor - even though Ahmed is probably also annoying them. The overal balance will therefore be in favour of Victor getting booted.
I'd suggest that Victor might get 34-42%, with Ahmed on 28-31%

Summary...

1'st : Victor , gets the boot
2 Ahmed
3 Nadia
4 Dan
5 Shell
6 Stuart

Will Ahmed manage to survive his third Eviction ?

Group Dynamics

Let us take a quick overview of the remaining 8 housemates.

Group 1: 'the children': ----
Group 2: 'middle people':, Dan, Michelle, Nadia, Shell, Stuart,
Group 3: 'the cats' : Ahmed, Jason, Victor

With Becki gone, the last 'fun' element of the house has gone. Nadia has now quietened down even further, especially with the recent lack of cigarettes - although with BB capitulating to her drug needs, she won't be going crazy as she did before. The days of 'childish games' in the house are now over. From now on, things get serious. With just 3 weeks to go, the paranoia is going to heighten - especially for Shell, whom appears the most desperate to win this year.

Dan has continued to act in a parental capacity in the house, and has certainly annoyed the hell out of Ahmed at times. Ahmed can't stand Dan, probably in part due to the fact that Dan is gay - and we all know what dear Ahmed thinks of gay people. Michelle and Nadia are doing quite okay in the group. Michelle has her chicken, and remains relentlessly clingy to him - much to Stu-pid's annoyance. Why does Stuart not ever stand up to Michelle? Is Stuart perhaps the innocent virginal type as some believe (myself included). A virginal status would account for a great many things with what we have seen from this on-screen couple. Things has looked quite strained between them this week, especially on Monday evening when Michelle was making it quite clear to Stuart that he had better not mess her around. For the sake of their win, Michelle and Stuart will surely continue to be nice to each other for the rest of the show - even if they decide to break things off.

Stuart and Shell continue to storm through the series unseen by the other housemates. It is remarkable what both of them have achieved. Stuart in particular has not upset any of the other housemates - and for this reason alone, it would account for the fact that he is yet to receive a single nomination.

The Jungle Cats have continued to draw Ahmed closer into their Alliance - and Ahmed has seemed more than happy to listen to everything they suggest to him. Yet with nominations effectively scrubbed this week, all the hard word of Jason and Victor to keep Ahmed on their side of the fence has been for nothing.

More than anything so far this series, I find the group a very forgiving group. They have seemingly been able to move on from fight night remarkably well. I can not imagine myself in that situation being so forgiving of Jason or Victor. I would not be able to just 'move on', after what happened that momentous night. Of the whole group, Nadia still appears to hold some sort of a grudge against Jason - calling him a 'bully' during the recent Military task, in terms of him suggesting that she not smoke during her sentry duty.

In summary, the group split between the jungle cats and the middle people is now solidified. When it comes to week 8-9 of nominations - assuming BB doesn't tinker with things, Jason will be up for the boot, with Nadia also likely to go.

Stuart - Still on course to win BB5

Looking ahead

It is a tough call as to whether Ahmed will survive against Victor. I remain heavily biased in favour of Ahmed (I can't help it), if only because I'd really like to see someone of his age make it to the final night - although I seriously doubt my dream scenario could happen.

Dan, Shell and Stuart are playing a great game this series, and as such deserve to reach the final night. Michelle - one of my original final 4, I am having doubts about. Will she manage to survive until the end, or will Nadia, or even Jason make it instead ? There remain some great unknowns in this series, which is one reason why I consider BB5 as superior to any previous BB season.

With just 3 weeks and a bit left of this series, there is a lot for C4 to yet squeeze in. What seems likely next week is a double eviction, being announced next Tuesday. In week 9 then, we could assume a standard nomination and eviction process to occur. If C4 have any sense in them, they will keep the final week simple, with just 4 housemates staying until the final night.

If Ahmed does get booted this Friday it will be a shame, although Victor could yet provide a few more classic diary room lines for our amusement. Enjoy the show, you'll miss it when it ends !

yours...

Calrissian : Wondering what Emma Greenwood is up to.